Explore US Treasury and euro-area 10-year minus 3-month yield spreads, historical charts and the limits of yield curve recession indicators.
THE COMPARISON
United States and Europe
Each value carries its own observation date. Europe means the euro area unless stated otherwise. All charts share the same five-year window; shorter source histories are marked. Click a chart to inspect dated values.
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Yield Curve · 10Y − 3M
US par yields; euro-area AAA modelled spot yields.
The yield-curve spread subtracts a three-month government yield from a ten-year yield measured on the same observation date. It is expressed in percentage points: 4.0% minus 5.0% equals −1.0 percentage point. A negative spread is called an inversion. No unmatched dates or missing maturities are combined.
The US series uses Treasury par yields. The euro-area series uses the ECB’s modelled, continuously compounded spot yields for AAA-rated euro-area government issuers. Par yields and spot yields are different concepts, and the European AAA sample is not the entire euro-area bond market. The regional comparison is therefore informative, not perfectly like-for-like.
An inversion can reflect restrictive short-term policy and expectations of future rate cuts or weaker activity. Historically it has often preceded US recessions, but timing and reliability vary. Term premia, asset purchases and demand for safe assets can also shape the curve. It does not predict a precise crash date or guarantee an equity-market decline.
Does an inverted yield curve predict recession?
An inversion has preceded several US recessions, but it does not fix their timing or guarantee a recession. This dashboard uses the 10-year minus 3-month spread, not 10Y–2Y. US par yields and euro-area AAA spot yields are different constructions.