Compare the US Buffett Indicator with a monthly euro-area market-cap-to-GDP variant. Explore historical charts, observation dates and valuation limits.
THE COMPARISON
United States and Europe
Each value carries its own observation date. Europe means the euro area unless stated otherwise. All charts share the same five-year window; shorter source histories are marked. Click a chart to inspect dated values.
ECB (ESCB securities; Eurostat national accounts); ratio calculated by Crash Indicators
Listed-share liabilities of euro-area resident issuers at month-end / sum of four consecutive quarters of nominal, unadjusted GDP × 100. Latest available completed quarter at or before each month; revised history, not a real-time vintage.
The Buffett Indicator compares the market value of listed domestic companies with the economy’s annual gross domestic product. A ratio of 150.0% means that the measured equity market is worth one and a half times one year of domestic output. The US uses the World Bank’s annual ratio. The euro-area variant divides the ECB’s monthly listed-share market value by four consecutive quarters of nominal GDP from Eurostat via the ECB.
A high ratio can reflect demanding valuations, but also a large listed sector, higher expected profitability or lower discount rates. Multinational companies earn revenue abroad, while GDP measures production within an economy. Private companies are absent from the numerator. Differences in listing practices and industry mix make a universal US–European warning threshold inappropriate.
The euro-area numerator covers shares issued by resident companies, including financial firms, at market value. Both inputs use changing euro-area composition and euro units. The latest available completed GDP quarter is shown explicitly; monthly market values and quarterly output update on different schedules. This derived variant is not identical to the US annual measure.
What is the Buffett Indicator today?
Use the observation dates below. The US series is annual, while the euro-area variant is monthly and uses trailing four-quarter GDP. Neither is a live intraday valuation or a reliable crash-timing signal.